Kendall Stephenson

Research

Kendall Stephenson presenting economic research.

Job Market Paper

The “Crowding Out” Effects of Special Districts: Evidence from Colorado’s Metropolitan Districts

Unlike other states, Colorado has relied extensively on Metropolitan Districts as a way to finance infrastructure for development projects and to provide key municipal services. “Metro districts” have the power to issue public debt and levy property taxes, but under Colorado’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR), strict property-tax levy limits are suspended if revenues are insufficient to meet debt-service payments. Because metro districts have taken on substantial debt—over $11.5 billion outstanding as of 2022—mill levies in these districts have risen considerably over the past few decades. In this paper, I use administrative data for all property taxing authorities in the state as well as proprietary parcel-level data from CoreLogic to test whether increased reliance on metro districts has influenced the taxing capabilities of other overlapping levels of government (school districts, counties, and municipalities). Such ”crowding out” could exacerbate inequality in a fiscal system where higher levels of government provide tangible services that influence economic mobility. Results indicate heterogeneity: in some specifications, reliance on metro districts is associated with significantly lower voter-approved property tax levies, depending on the type of levy and level of government. These findings have significant implications for local governments already operating under one of the strictest tax and expenditure limitations in the country, as well as those outside of Colorado, where private real estate developers may have an outsized influence in local government formation law.

Peer Reviewed Publications

  1. “How Much is Fiscal Consolidation Offset by Increases in Social
    Safety Net Spending? Evidence from the 2011 Budget Control Act    .” With Timothy Komarek and Vinicius Cicero. The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy (2026).
  2. “Minors at Work: The Impact of Education and Labor Policy Changes on I-O Psychology.” With Keaton Fletcher. Industrial and Organizational Psychology (2025).
  3. “Occupational Health and Labor Unions.” With Denise Vesper, Michael J Zickar, Liam O’Brien, Rory O’Neill, Maureen F Dollard, Kevin Flynn, Keaton A Fletcher, Timo Ahr, Alexander Jost, Kaylee Somerville, Julian Barling. Occupational Health Science (2025).
  4. “Multi-Level Nowcasting: Estimation in a Post-COVID Landscape.” With Erin Lacey-King, Stephan Weiler, and Eric Stewart. Economies (2022).

Working Papers

  1. “Taxation and State-Building on the Frontier: Public Finance, Economic Development, and the General Property Tax in the 19th Century.”
  2. “Viewing Unions Through a Public Health Model Lens.” With Tony Ramirez, Alex Bush, and Keaton Fletcher.

Publications For Broad Audiences

  1. “The Cost of Aging in Colorado: Budget Trends and Gaps in Colorado’s Public Programs.” With Shana McClain. Colorado Fiscal Institute Reports (2025). Related interview on public radio available here (begins at minute 6:00).
  2. “The Other Debt Crisis: Public Higher Education and Institutional Debt in the United States.” Dollars and Sense (2024). Available in print only.
  3. “Evaluating Housing Affordability in Fort Collins.” With Gregory Miller and Ryan Defilppi. Regional Economic Development Institute Reports (2022).
  4. “Colorado’s Unemployment Insurance Experience: 1980-2020.” Regional Economic Development Institute Reports (2021).

Presentations

2025

  • North American Regional Science Council (Denver, CO)
  • Association for Budgeting and Financial Management (Atlanta, GA)
  • Western Social Science Association (Seattle, WA)
  • Eastern Economic Association (New York, NY)
  • International Confederation of Associations for Pluralism in Economics (San Francisco, CA)

2024

  • North American Regional Science Council (New Orleans, LA)

2023

  • North American Regional Science Council (San Diego, CA)
  • American Association of Geographers (Denver, CO)
  • Eastern Economic Association (New York, NY)

2022

  • ClassCrits XIII, Thurgood Marshall School of Law (Houston, TX)

2021

  • Mid-Continent Regional Science Association (Virtual)

2018

  • Federal Reserve Bank of New York (New York, NY)
  • Union for Radical Political Economics (Amherst, MA)